Commits on GitHub Are Up 14× Year-Over-Year

Two months ago, revisiting Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei’s year-prior prediction that AI would soon be writing 90+ percent of all programming code, I wrote: But where I think Amodei’s remarks, quoted above, are facile is that it hasn’t played out as simply that lines of code that would have been written by human programmers are now generated by AI models. That’s part of it, for sure. But what’s revolutionary — a topic I’ve been posting about twice already today — is that AI code generation tools are being used to create services and apps and libraries that simply would not have been written at all before. It may well be that the total number of lines of code that will be written by people today isn’t much different from the number of lines of code that were written by people a year ago. But there might be 10× more code generated by AI than is written by people today. Maybe more. Maybe a lot more? And a year or two or three from now, that might be 100× or 1,000× or 100,000×. In that near future, human programmers are likely still to be writing — or at least line-by-line reviewing and approving — code. But as a percentage of all code being generated, that will only be a sliver. Early in April we kind of got a number we can assign to this: 14×. GitHub COO Kyle Daigle posted on Twitter/X (alternative link): Yup, platform activity is surging. There were 1 billion commits in 2025. Now, it’s 275 million per week, on pace for 14 billion this year if growth remains linear (spoiler: it won’t.) GitHub Actions has grown from 500M minutes/week in 2023 to 1B minutes/week in 2025, and now 2.1B minutes so far this week. No one at Apple is talking about it publicly (yet?), but judging by response times, App Store review is facing a similar deluge. ★